Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Haugesund travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 July 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Haugesund 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 68% versus Haugesund 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 61% | Haugesund 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.01 xG and Haugesund 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.985 / defence 0.954 | Haugesund attack 0.718 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.344. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 42 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 16%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Haugesund 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Haugesund 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jul 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.01 / Haugesund 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.985 / def 0.954 | Haugesund attack 0.718 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Haugesund xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 July 2025 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 62% chance of winning, Haugesund a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
Record (8 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 3W | Draws 3 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Haugesund (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.98) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
62%
1.60
21%
4.67
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.93
0.92
Haugesund xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
2%
46.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.92 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 14W 12D 15L from 41 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 24L across 41 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sarpsborg 08 FF by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 5W 5D 10L from 20 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 1W 6D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 0.78 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 14W 12D 15L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 8W 9D 24L in their last 41 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Haugesund away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.00 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Haugesund have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 65%, Haugesund 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 60% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 55% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 60% of Haugesund's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Haugesund 3-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.01 xG and Haugesund 0.92 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against Haugesund attack 0.72 / defence 1.37, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 16%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 61%, Haugesund 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.