Sandefjord 4-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Jotun Arena to face Sandefjord in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 June 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandefjord have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sandefjord's home record at Jotun Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Haugesund (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.40 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sandefjord lead 3W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 4–3 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 60% versus Haugesund 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 62% | Haugesund 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.38 xG and Haugesund 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.251 / defence 0.831 | Haugesund attack 0.750 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.472. Sandefjord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Sandefjord games / 40 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 70% | Draw 17% | Haugesund 13%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Haugesund 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 70% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 60% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 70% | Draw 17% | Haugesund 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 54% | xG Sandefjord 2.38 / Haugesund 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.251 / def 0.831 | Haugesund attack 0.750 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Haugesund xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Haugesund kick off?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 June 2025 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Sandefjord 4 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Sandefjord vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Haugesund part of?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 70% chance of winning, Haugesund a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sandefjord and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Record (8 meetings): Sandefjord 3W | Draws 3 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (1.25) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.75x) against Sandefjord's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
70%
1.43
17%
5.75
13%
7.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.30
0.92
Haugesund xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.75
17%
Draw
7.85
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
9%
10.82
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
1%
84.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.92 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 14D 29L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.12 PPG from 60 outings (18W 13D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.12 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sandefjord's home form reads 13W 7D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (5W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.03 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Haugesund away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.53 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 57%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sandefjord) and 50% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord have failed to score in 27% of games; Haugesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 50% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sandefjord's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Sandefjord and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sandefjord run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Haugesund 4-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.38 xG and Haugesund 0.92 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.25 / defence 0.83 against Haugesund attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 70% | Draw 17% | Haugesund 13%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 62%, Haugesund 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.08 PPG, Haugesund 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.