Rosenborg vs Start – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (87%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rosenborg face Start.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 26 as Rosenborg welcome Start to Lerkendal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rosenborg have posted 6W 3D 1L at Lerkendal Stadion — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Start — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Start have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Start in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Rosenborg, 0 for Start and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2026, ended 3–0 with Rosenborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Start in-play and half-time data (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 44% versus Start 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 61% | Start 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 3.75 xG and Start 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.330 / defence 0.847 | Start attack 0.644 / defence 1.589. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.528. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — their λ of 3.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.589 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Rosenborg games / 23 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 87% | Draw 9% | Start 4%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.15 | Draw 11.11 | Start 25.00. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (87%) — a 83pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 4.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 87% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.58 combined xG gives a 84% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Start 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 87% | Draw 9% | Start 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 56% | xG Rosenborg 3.75 / Start 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.330 / def 0.847 | Start attack 0.644 / def 1.589 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (87%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.75
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Start xG
56%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Start kick off?
Rosenborg vs Start is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Start part of?
Rosenborg vs Start is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 87% chance of winning, Start a 4% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Start?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rosenborg and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Start?
Record (3 meetings): Rosenborg 2W | Draws 1 | Start 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Start in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Start (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.33x the league average against Start's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 3.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Start's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
87%
1.14
9%
11.16
4%
27.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.75
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
4.58
0.83
Start xG
1.14
87%
Home win
11.16
9%
Draw
27.10
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
2%
42.31
Win to Nil
38%
2.64
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Start expected to score?
The model projects 3.75 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.83 for Start, a combined total of 4.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 87%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rosenborg come into this having played 23 games, going 11W 4D 8L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Start sit at 0.70 PPG from 23 outings (4W 4D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Start — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Rosenborg's home form reads 7W 3D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Start have taken 0.33 points per game from 12 outings (1W 1D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.09 scored and 2.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Start in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Start in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 11W 4D 8L in their last 23 games (1.61 PPG), while Start have gone 4W 4D 15L in their last 23 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Start away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.00 PPG; Start away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Start been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Start in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Rosenborg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jul 2026, when Rosenborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
1
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Start?
From 3 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Start have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Start last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Start 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Start?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 58%, Start 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Rosenborg and 75% for Start. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Start in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Start?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Rosenborg's games and 67% of Start's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Rosenborg's matches and 75% of Start's.
Do Rosenborg and Start tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Start in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.