Rosenborg 1-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Sandefjord at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 29 October 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 0.90 PPG versus Sandefjord's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Rosenborg hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for Sandefjord, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2025, ended 0–2 with Sandefjord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rosenborg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 56% versus Sandefjord 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 58% | Sandefjord 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.85 xG and Sandefjord 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.045 / defence 0.987 | Sandefjord attack 1.063 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.417. Data: 55 Rosenborg games / 55 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 46% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 30%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 3.33. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Sandefjord 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Oct 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 46% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Rosenborg 1.85 / Sandefjord 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.045 / def 0.987 | Sandefjord attack 1.063 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Sandefjord xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 29 October 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Rosenborg 1 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord part of?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 46% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Rosenborg and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
Record (8 meetings): Rosenborg 5W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 2W.
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.19
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.34
1.49
Sandefjord xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
5%
20.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.49 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 25W 13D 17L from 55 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 25L across 55 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.60 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 15W 7D 5L from 27 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sandefjord's away record stands at 5W 6D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.55 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 25W 13D 17L in their last 55 games (1.60 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 21W 9D 25L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sandefjord away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.93 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when Rosenborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
3
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Sandefjord have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sandefjord 0-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sandefjord see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 59%, Sandefjord 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Rosenborg) and 67% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Rosenborg's games and 70% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Rosenborg's matches and 67% of Sandefjord's.
Do Rosenborg and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg and Sandefjord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Sandefjord finished level at 1-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.85 xG and Sandefjord 1.49 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Sandefjord attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 46% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 30%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 58%, Sandefjord 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandefjord's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.60 PPG, Sandefjord 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.