Rosenborg 0-0 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Molde have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Rosenborg, 1.80 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Rosenborg 2W, Molde 2W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Molde — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 62% and Molde 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 65% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.70 xG and Molde 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.954 / defence 0.807 | Molde attack 0.887 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.354. Data: 33 Rosenborg games / 33 Molde games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 54% | Draw 24% | Molde 21%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Molde 4.76. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 60% | Molde 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 54% | Draw 24% | Molde 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Rosenborg 1.70 / Molde 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.954 / def 0.807 | Molde attack 0.887 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Molde xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Molde kick off?
Rosenborg vs Molde kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Rosenborg 0 - 0 Molde.
Where is Rosenborg vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Molde part of?
Rosenborg vs Molde is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 54% chance of winning, Molde a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rosenborg and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Molde?
Record (7 meetings): Rosenborg 2W | Draws 3 | Molde 2W.
What form are Rosenborg and Molde in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Molde (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 0.95x the league average against Molde's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (0.89x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.16
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.67
0.97
Molde xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
4%
25.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.97 for Molde, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 27W 11D 22L from 60 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 30W 13D 17L across 60 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.72 for Molde. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 17W 5D 8L from 30 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 13W 7D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.15 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Molde in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 27W 11D 22L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while Molde have gone 30W 13D 17L in their last 60 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Molde away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.87 PPG; Molde away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Molde in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
4
Draws
4
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Molde have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Molde 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Molde 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Rosenborg and 63% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 57% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Rosenborg's matches and 63% of Molde's.
Do Rosenborg and Molde tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Molde in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as Rosenborg and Molde drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.70 xG and Molde 0.97 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Molde landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.95 / defence 0.81 against Molde attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 54% | Draw 24% | Molde 21%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 65%, Molde 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.53 PPG, Molde 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.