Rosenborg 1-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Brann meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Rosenborg, 1.80 for Brann — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Brann in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Brann hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Brann winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Brann have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 63% and Brann 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 67% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.83 xG and Brann 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.240 / defence 0.795 | Brann attack 1.296 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.223. Brann have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Rosenborg games / 54 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 51% | Draw 23% | Brann 26%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Brann 3.85. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Brann lead the H2H ledger, but Rosenborg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 51% | Draw 23% | Brann 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Rosenborg 1.83 / Brann 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.240 / def 0.795 | Brann attack 1.296 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Brann xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Brann kick off?
Rosenborg vs Brann kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Rosenborg 1 - 2 Brann.
Where is Rosenborg vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Brann part of?
Rosenborg vs Brann is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 51% chance of winning, Brann a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rosenborg and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
Record (6 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 1 | Brann 4W.
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Brann (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Rosenborg vs Brann?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.24x the league average against Brann's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.30x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.36
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.09
1.26
Brann xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
4%
23.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.26 for Brann, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 10D 21L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brann sit at 1.98 PPG from 54 outings (32W 11D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 16W 4D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Brann have taken 1.70 points per game from 27 outings (13W 7D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.80 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 23W 10D 21L in their last 54 games (1.46 PPG), while Brann have gone 32W 11D 11L in their last 54 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Brann away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.93 PPG; Brann away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Brann in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 3-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rosenborg
3
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 1, Brann have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Rosenborg 1-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 59%, Brann 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Rosenborg) and 52% (Brann). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Brann in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Rosenborg's games and 56% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Rosenborg's matches and 52% of Brann's.
Do Rosenborg and Brann tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Brann in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brann defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Rosenborg 1-2 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.83 xG and Brann 1.26 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.24 / defence 0.80 against Brann attack 1.30 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 51% | Draw 23% | Brann 26%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 67%, Brann 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.