KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates KFUM Oslo at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KFUM Arena plays host to KFUM Oslo versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KFUM Oslo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KFUM Oslo at KFUM Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Ham-Kam have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward KFUM Oslo. A 0.80 PPG lead over Ham-Kam (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KFUM Oslo lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 0–4 with Ham-Kam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KFUM Oslo 60% versus Ham-Kam 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 54% | Ham-Kam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.80 xG and Ham-Kam 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.851 / defence 0.921 | Ham-Kam attack 1.020 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.503. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing KFUM Oslo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 KFUM Oslo games / 53 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 45% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 29%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Ham-Kam 3.45. KFUM Oslo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KFUM Oslo at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: KFUM Oslo 50% | Ham-Kam 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 45% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.80 / Ham-Kam 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.851 / def 0.921 | Ham-Kam attack 1.020 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Ham-Kam xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at KFUM Arena.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 45% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam?
Record (5 meetings): KFUM Oslo 1W | Draws 3 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam in?
KFUM Oslo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from KFUM Oslo's attack rating (0.85) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (1.02x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.82
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
3.22
1.41
Ham-Kam xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
5%
21.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.41 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KFUM Oslo come into this having played 52 games, going 16W 15D 21L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.15 PPG from 52 outings (16W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.15 for Ham-Kam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
KFUM Oslo's home form reads 11W 7D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.81 points per game from 27 outings (5W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KFUM Oslo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.40 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 16W 12D 24L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Ham-Kam away?
KFUM Oslo's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 1.48 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
KFUM Oslo
3
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Ham-Kam 4-0 KFUM Oslo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KFUM Oslo 63%, Ham-Kam 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for KFUM Oslo and 67% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KFUM Oslo play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of KFUM Oslo's games and 48% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of KFUM Oslo's matches and 67% of Ham-Kam's.
Do KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
KFUM Oslo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.