Haugesund 0-3 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Haugesund face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 26 as Haugesund welcome Molde to Haugesund Sparebank Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Molde have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Molde — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Molde have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 7 encounters against Haugesund's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Molde winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Molde trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 47% versus Molde 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 49% | Molde 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.71 xG and Molde 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.614 / defence 0.806 | Molde attack 1.189 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.227. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.614 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Molde's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Haugesund games / 55 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 22% | Draw 31% | Molde 47%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | Molde 2.13. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Haugesund's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 20% | Molde 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 22% | Draw 31% | Molde 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Haugesund 0.71 / Molde 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.614 / def 0.806 | Molde attack 1.189 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Molde (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Molde xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Molde kick off?
Haugesund vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Haugesund 0 - 3 Molde.
Where is Haugesund vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Molde part of?
Haugesund vs Molde is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 22% chance of winning, Molde a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Haugesund and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
Record (7 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 7W.
What form are Haugesund and Molde in?
Haugesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Molde (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Haugesund vs Molde?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Molde's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
22%
4.46
31%
3.26
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Haugesund xG
Total xG
1.89
1.18
Molde xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
7%
14.46
23%
4.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 17.7 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.18 for Molde, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund come into this having played 55 games, going 15W 12D 28L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Molde sit at 1.73 PPG from 55 outings (28W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haugesund's home form reads 11W 3D 13L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.56 points per game from 27 outings (12W 6D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.16 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Molde in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 15W 12D 28L in their last 55 games (1.04 PPG), while Molde have gone 28W 11D 16L in their last 55 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.33 PPG; Molde away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Molde in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Molde have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Molde specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
0
Draws
10
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Molde have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 44%, Molde 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Haugesund) and 63% (Molde).
On the defensive side: Haugesund have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Molde?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Haugesund's recent matches and 59% of Molde's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Haugesund's recent games and 63% of Molde's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Molde tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Molde in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 0-3 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.71 xG and Molde 1.18 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Molde outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.61 / defence 0.81 against Molde attack 1.19 / defence 0.77, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 22% | Draw 31% | Molde 47%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 49%, Molde 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.