Haugesund 0-2 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KFUM Oslo at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees KFUM Oslo travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 July 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 3W 2D 5L at Haugesund Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, KFUM Oslo have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KFUM Oslo's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. KFUM Oslo are 0.70 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Haugesund, 1 for KFUM Oslo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
KFUM Oslo trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 40% versus KFUM Oslo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 50% | KFUM Oslo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.80 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.536 / defence 1.289 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.945 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.301. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.536 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Haugesund games / 42 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 19% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 56%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | KFUM Oslo 1.79. The model has a clear lean to KFUM Oslo (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KFUM Oslo as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 20% | KFUM Oslo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 19% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Haugesund 0.80 / KFUM Oslo 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.536 / def 1.289 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.945 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.58
KFUM Oslo xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 July 2025 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Haugesund 0 - 2 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 19% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Haugesund and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and KFUM Oslo?
Record (2 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 1 | KFUM Oslo 1W.
What form are Haugesund and KFUM Oslo in?
Haugesund (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.54x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, KFUM Oslo's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
19%
5.33
26%
3.92
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.39
1.58
KFUM Oslo xG
5.33
19%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
4%
26.01
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.5 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Haugesund and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.58 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund's recent record stands at 8W 9D 25L from 42 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KFUM Oslo, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 17L across 42 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 0.79 PPG, KFUM Oslo on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 7W 3D 11L from 21 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KFUM Oslo's away record stands at 8W 5D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.21 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 8W 9D 25L in their last 42 games (0.79 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 12W 13D 17L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or KFUM Oslo away?
KFUM Oslo's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.14 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Haugesund won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting KFUM Oslo specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Haugesund
1
Draws
2
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and KFUM Oslo?
From 4 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, KFUM Oslo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when KFUM Oslo 1-4 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and KFUM Oslo?
KFUM Oslo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 24%, KFUM Oslo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Haugesund) and 48% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Haugesund have failed to score in 52% of games; KFUM Oslo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play KFUM Oslo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Haugesund's recent matches and 52% of KFUM Oslo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Haugesund's recent games and 48% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KFUM Oslo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat Haugesund 0-2 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.80 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.58 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.54 / defence 1.29 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 19% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 56%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 50%, KFUM Oslo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 0.79 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KFUM Oslo win broke the near-deadlock. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.