Ham-Kam 2-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 55%, yet in-form Valerenga provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 25 as Ham-Kam welcome Valerenga to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 3W 3D 4L at Briskeby Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Valerenga — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ham-Kam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Valerenga in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ham-Kam, 2 for Valerenga and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ham-Kam trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Valerenga trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 54% versus Valerenga 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 54% | Valerenga 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 2.15 xG and Valerenga 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.926 / defence 1.060 | Valerenga attack 0.975 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.350. Valerenga bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Ham-Kam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Ham-Kam games / 24 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 55% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 24%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Valerenga 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Ham-Kam (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valerenga (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 70% | Valerenga 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 55% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Ham-Kam 2.15 / Valerenga 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.926 / def 1.060 | Valerenga attack 0.975 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Valerenga xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Valerenga kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Valerenga kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Ham-Kam 2 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga part of?
Ham-Kam vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 55% chance of winning, Valerenga a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Ham-Kam and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
Record (5 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 3 | Valerenga 2W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Valerenga in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Valerenga (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.93x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
55%
1.83
21%
4.75
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.55
1.40
Valerenga xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
12%
8.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
3%
35.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.40 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ham-Kam come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 7D 11L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valerenga sit at 1.42 PPG from 24 outings (10W 4D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.04 PPG, Valerenga on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ham-Kam's home form reads 4W 3D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Valerenga have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (4W 1D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.62 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 6W 7D 11L in their last 24 games (1.04 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 10W 4D 10L in their last 24 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Valerenga away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.25 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ham-Kam have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2023, when Valerenga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Valerenga have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Valerenga 0-3 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ham-Kam at 75%, Valerenga at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Ham-Kam) and 50% (Valerenga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Ham-Kam's games and 58% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ham-Kam's matches and 50% of Valerenga's.
Do Ham-Kam and Valerenga tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Valerenga 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Valerenga 2-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 2.15 xG and Valerenga 1.40 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Valerenga attack 0.97 / defence 1.34, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 55% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 24%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 54%, Valerenga 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.04 PPG, Valerenga 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.