Ham-Kam 0-0 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KFUM Oslo make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 2 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Ham-Kam (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ham-Kam at Briskeby Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
KFUM Oslo have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, KFUM Oslo have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ham-Kam, 1 for KFUM Oslo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with KFUM Oslo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
KFUM Oslo — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 40% versus KFUM Oslo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ham-Kam 37% | KFUM Oslo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.71 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.979 / defence 1.286 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.805 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.374. Data: 34 Ham-Kam games / 34 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 44% | Draw 24% | KFUM Oslo 32%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | KFUM Oslo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Ham-Kam 20% | KFUM Oslo 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 44% | Draw 24% | KFUM Oslo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Ham-Kam 1.71 / KFUM Oslo 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.979 / def 1.286 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.805 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.42
KFUM Oslo xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 2 May 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Ham-Kam 0 - 0 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 44% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo?
Record (2 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 1 | KFUM Oslo 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.98x the league average against KFUM Oslo's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.81x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.12
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.14
1.42
KFUM Oslo xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
6%
17.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.42 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ham-Kam come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 9D 13L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, KFUM Oslo sit at 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.23 for KFUM Oslo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ham-Kam's home form reads 4W 4D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, KFUM Oslo have taken 1.60 points per game from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KFUM Oslo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.17 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or KFUM Oslo away?
KFUM Oslo's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.07 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
1
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 1, KFUM Oslo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Ham-Kam 4-0 KFUM Oslo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 27%, KFUM Oslo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Ham-Kam) and 47% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 47% of games; KFUM Oslo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play KFUM Oslo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 53% of KFUM Oslo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 47% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ham-Kam's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo finished level at 0-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.71 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.42 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.7 short of their projected output. KFUM Oslo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.98 / defence 1.29 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 44% | Draw 24% | KFUM Oslo 32%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 37%, KFUM Oslo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.10 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.