Fredrikstad 1-1 Bryne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Bryne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 22 as Fredrikstad welcome Bryne to Fredrikstad Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 September 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Fredrikstad have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fredrikstad have posted 5W 2D 3L at Fredrikstad Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bryne stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bryne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bryne have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fredrikstad carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fredrikstad have won 0, Bryne 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 3–4 with Bryne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fredrikstad in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bryne in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 43% versus Bryne 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 38% | Bryne 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.95 xG and Bryne 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.986 / defence 0.977 | Bryne attack 0.747 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.405. Data: 50 Fredrikstad games / 21 Bryne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 58% | Draw 23% | Bryne 19%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Bryne 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 50% | Bryne 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Bryne | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 58% | Draw 23% | Bryne 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Fredrikstad 1.95 / Bryne 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.986 / def 0.977 | Bryne attack 0.747 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Bryne xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Bryne kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Bryne kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Bryne?
Fredrikstad 1 - 1 Bryne.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Bryne being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Bryne part of?
Fredrikstad vs Bryne is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Bryne?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 58% chance of winning, Bryne a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Bryne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fredrikstad and Bryne will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Bryne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Bryne?
Record (1 meetings): Fredrikstad 0W | Draws 0 | Bryne 1W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Bryne in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Bryne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fredrikstad's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Bryne's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Bryne's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.44
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.98
1.03
Bryne xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
3%
36.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Bryne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Bryne expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.03 for Bryne, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Bryne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 9W 6D 6L from 21 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bryne, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 11L across 21 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Bryne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bryne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 5W 2D 3L from 10 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bryne's away record stands at 1W 2D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bryne's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bryne are on 1.19 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Bryne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Bryne in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 9W 6D 6L in their last 21 games (1.57 PPG), while Bryne have gone 5W 5D 11L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Bryne away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.70 PPG; Bryne away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Bryne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bryne in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fredrikstad and Bryne runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
1
Bryne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Bryne?
From 2 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 0, Bryne have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Bryne last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Fredrikstad 1-1 Bryne.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Bryne?
Bryne have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bryne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 50%, Bryne 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fredrikstad) and 50% (Bryne).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad have failed to score in 30% of games; Bryne in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Bryne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Bryne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fredrikstad's games and 60% of Bryne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fredrikstad vs Bryne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 50% of Bryne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Bryne tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bryne in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fredrikstad and Bryne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad and Bryne finished level at 1-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.95 xG and Bryne 1.03 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fredrikstad fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Bryne attack 0.75 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 58% | Draw 23% | Bryne 19%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 38%, Bryne 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bryne's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bryne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.