Bryne 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bryne at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bryne vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bryne host Ham-Kam at Bryne Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 June 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Ham-Kam have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bryne 1.84 xG and Ham-Kam 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bryne attack 1.081 / defence 1.362 | Ham-Kam attack 0.837 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.390. Data: 10 Bryne games / 40 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bryne 44% | Draw 23% | Ham-Kam 33%. Fair-value odds: Bryne 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Ham-Kam 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bryne are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bryne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bryne vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Bryne Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bryne 44% | Draw 23% | Ham-Kam 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Bryne 1.84 / Ham-Kam 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Bryne attack 1.081 / def 1.362 | Ham-Kam attack 0.837 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Bryne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Bryne xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Ham-Kam xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bryne vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Bryne vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 June 2025 at Bryne Stadion.
What was the final score in Bryne vs Ham-Kam?
Bryne 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Bryne vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Bryne Stadion.
What competition is Bryne vs Ham-Kam part of?
Bryne vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bryne vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Bryne a 44% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bryne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bryne vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Bryne and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Bryne vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bryne and Ham-Kam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bryne and Ham-Kam in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Ham-Kam away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bryne's attack at 1.08x the league average against Ham-Kam's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Bryne's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bryne Win
44%
2.30
23%
4.27
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Bryne xG
Total xG
3.42
1.58
Ham-Kam xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
5%
19.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bryne vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Bryne and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Bryne and 1.58 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bryne vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bryne
Pre-Season
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bryne and Ham-Kam runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bryne
1
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bryne and Ham-Kam?
From 2 meetings on record, Bryne have won 0, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bryne and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Ham-Kam 1-0 Bryne.
Who has won more matches between Bryne and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bryne home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bryne and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bryne and Ham-Kam finished level at 1-1 at Bryne Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bryne 1.84 xG and Ham-Kam 1.58 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bryne fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bryne attack 1.08 / defence 1.36 against Ham-Kam attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bryne 44% | Draw 23% | Ham-Kam 33%, with Bryne to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.