Brann 3-2 Bryne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Bryne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brann host Bryne at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brann stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brann's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 2.29 xG and Bryne 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.184 / defence 0.873 | Bryne attack 0.830 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.329. Data: 34 Brann games / 3 Bryne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 67% | Draw 18% | Bryne 14%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Bryne 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Brann (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Bryne | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 67% | Draw 18% | Bryne 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 56% | xG Brann 2.29 / Bryne 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.184 / def 0.873 | Bryne attack 0.830 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Brann (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Brann xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Bryne xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Bryne kick off?
Brann vs Bryne kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Bryne?
Brann 3 - 2 Bryne.
Where is Brann vs Bryne being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Bryne part of?
Brann vs Bryne is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Bryne?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 67% chance of winning, Bryne a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Bryne?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Brann and Bryne will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Bryne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bryne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Bryne in?
Brann (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Brann home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Brann's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Bryne's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. The same calculation in reverse, Bryne's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.43
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Brann xG
Total xG
3.25
0.96
Bryne xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
10%
9.88
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
1%
68.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Bryne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Brann and Bryne expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Brann and 0.96 for Bryne, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Bryne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Pre-Season
Bryne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Brann
0
Draws
1
Bryne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bryne?
From 2 meetings on record, Brann have won 1, Bryne have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Bryne last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Bryne 2-1 Brann.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Bryne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Bryne 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Bryne 3-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.29 xG and Bryne 0.96 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bryne outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.18 / defence 0.87 against Bryne attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 34/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 67% | Draw 18% | Bryne 14%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.