Bodo/Glimt 2-4 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 65% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Viking make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 May 2025 at 21:00 UK time.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bodo/Glimt's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Viking away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 80% of Viking's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Bodo/Glimt 1–1 Viking — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 58% and Viking 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 65% | Viking 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.56 xG and Viking 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.623 / defence 0.698 | Viking attack 1.370 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.365. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.623 — their 2.56 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Viking have an above-average attack rating of 1.370, which lifts their away xG to 1.30. Bodo/Glimt have a tight defence (rating 0.698), which is pulling Viking's projected output down. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 36 games and Viking's last 40.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 18% | Viking 18%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.55 | Draw 5.67 | Viking 5.61. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.56 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.87 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 home games) | Viking 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 19 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 May 2025 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 18% | Viking 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.56 / Viking 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.623 / def 0.698 | Viking attack 1.370 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Viking xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Viking FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Viking kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Viking kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Wednesday 28 May 2025 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 4 Viking.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Viking is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 19) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 65% chance of winning, Viking a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Viking will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.62x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.37x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 36 games and Viking's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
65%
1.55
18%
5.67
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.87
1.30
Viking xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.67
18%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
8%
12.95
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
1%
72.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Viking Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.30 for Viking, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 60 games, going 40W 12D 8L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.92 PPG from 60 outings (34W 13D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.20 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 1.92 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 22W 6D 2L across their last 30 home games, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.63 points per game from their last 30 away games (14W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.48 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.03 scored and 1.45 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 65%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Viking (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Viking Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Viking in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 12D 8L in their last 60 games (2.20 PPG), while Viking have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Viking away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.40 PPG; Viking away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Viking in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Viking H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, Viking have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Viking last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 57%, Viking 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Bodo/Glimt and 60% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Viking Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Viking matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 57% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Viking matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 60% of Viking's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Viking matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 73% of Viking's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Bodo/Glimt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Bodo/Glimt 2-4 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.56 xG and Viking 1.30 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Viking outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.62 / defence 0.70 against Viking attack 1.37 / defence 1.04, drawn from 36/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 18% | Viking 18%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Viking win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 65%, Viking 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bodo/Glimt 2.20 PPG, Viking 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.