Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 19 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Kristiansund BK to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sarpsborg 08 FF at 1.00 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 3 for Kristiansund BK and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 69% and Kristiansund BK 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 65% | Kristiansund BK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.94 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.960 / defence 1.253 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.869 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.342. Kristiansund BK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 48 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 28%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Kristiansund BK 3.57. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% | Kristiansund BK 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 25 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.94 / Kristiansund BK 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.960 / def 1.253 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.869 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Kristiansund BK xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 August 2025 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 48% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
Record (8 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W | Draws 3 | Kristiansund BK 3W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.96x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.23
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.40
1.46
Kristiansund BK xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
4%
24.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.46 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 15W 14D 19L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 13W 15D 20L from 48 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.23 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.04 PPG from 23 outings (6W 6D 11L).
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 5W 6D 12L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.08 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 15W 14D 19L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.04 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Kristiansund BK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 48% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 52% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 48% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kristiansund BK defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.94 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.46 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.96 / defence 1.25 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.87 / defence 1.22, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 28%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Kristiansund BK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 65%, Kristiansund BK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.23 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.