Bodo/Glimt 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt host Haugesund at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 16 July 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bodo/Glimt's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Bodo/Glimt are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Haugesund and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2022, ended Bodo/Glimt 1–1 Haugesund — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.

Haugesund in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 63% and Haugesund 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 72% | Haugesund 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.07 xG and Haugesund 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.404 / defence 0.935 | Haugesund attack 0.626 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.223. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.404 — their 2.07 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Haugesund's attack rating of 0.626 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 44 games and Haugesund's last 43.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 69% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 12%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.46 | Draw 5.08 | Haugesund 8.62. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (69%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights