Haugesund 1-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Lillestrom travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 July 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Sparebank Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Lillestrom have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lillestrom are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Lillestrom, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Haugesund.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Lillestrom winning.
It is worth noting that Lillestrom have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 59% versus Lillestrom 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 57% | Lillestrom 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.49 xG and Lillestrom 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.974 / defence 1.046 | Lillestrom attack 1.097 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.252. Data: 44 Haugesund games / 44 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 39% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 36%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Lillestrom 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lillestrom (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 80% | Lillestrom 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 39% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Haugesund 1.49 / Lillestrom 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.974 / def 1.046 | Lillestrom attack 1.097 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Lillestrom xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Lillestrom kick off?
Haugesund vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Haugesund 1 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is Haugesund vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Lillestrom part of?
Haugesund vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 39% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Haugesund and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Lillestrom?
Record (4 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 4W.
What form are Haugesund and Lillestrom in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.97x the league average against Lillestrom's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
39%
2.57
25%
4.06
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.93
1.44
Lillestrom xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
8%
12.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.44 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 14W 11D 19L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 24W 7D 13L from 44 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 10W 5D 6L from 21 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.77 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 24W 7D 13L in their last 44 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.57 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Lillestrom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Lillestrom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Haugesund
0
Draws
6
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Lillestrom?
From 8 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Lillestrom have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Lillestrom 0-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 76%, Lillestrom at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Haugesund and 67% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Haugesund's games and 62% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Haugesund's matches and 67% of Lillestrom's.
Do Haugesund and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haugesund edge out Lillestrom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Lillestrom 1-0 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.49 xG and Lillestrom 1.44 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lillestrom landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.97 / defence 1.05 against Lillestrom attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 39% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 36%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 57%, Lillestrom 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.