Willem II 1-3 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Telstar at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus Telstar in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Sunday 1 June 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Telstar (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Telstar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Telstar have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Telstar arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Willem II are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Willem II and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 65% and Telstar 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 46% | Telstar 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.31 xG and Telstar 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.707 / defence 1.370 | Telstar attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.304. Willem II's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Willem II games / 0 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 31% | Draw 29% | Telstar 40%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Telstar 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Willem II dominate the H2H record, yet Telstar are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Telstar as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 80% | Telstar 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Telstar | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 31% | Draw 29% | Telstar 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Willem II 1.31 / Telstar 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.707 / def 1.370 | Telstar attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Telstar (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Telstar xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Telstar kick off?
Willem II vs Telstar kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Telstar?
Willem II 1 - 3 Telstar.
Where is Willem II vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Telstar part of?
Willem II vs Telstar is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 31% chance of winning, Telstar a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Willem II and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Telstar?
Record (5 meetings): Willem II 3W | Draws 2 | Telstar 0W.
What form are Willem II and Telstar in?
Willem II (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Telstar (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.71) and Telstar's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.85x) against Willem II's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
31%
3.25
29%
3.41
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.83
1.52
Telstar xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
7%
14.83
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Willem II and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Willem II and 1.52 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II's recent record stands at 9W 13D 21L from 43 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Telstar, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 21L across 43 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Willem II against 1.07 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 6W 4D 11L from 21 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Telstar's away record stands at 3W 4D 14L across 21 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Telstar's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.26 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Telstar in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Telstar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Telstar in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 9W 13D 21L in their last 43 games (0.93 PPG), while Telstar have gone 12W 10D 21L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Telstar away?
Willem II's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.05 PPG; Telstar away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 1-5 on 24 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Telstar?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Willem II 1-3 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Telstar?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 67%, Telstar 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Willem II) and 43% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Telstar in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Willem II's recent matches and 43% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Willem II's recent games and 43% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Telstar tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Telstar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Telstar cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Willem II 1-3 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.31 xG and Telstar 1.52 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Telstar outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.71 / defence 1.37 against Telstar attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 31% | Draw 29% | Telstar 40%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 46%, Telstar 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 0.93 PPG, Telstar 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.