Willem II 3-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Willem II and Dordrecht meet at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Dordrecht arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Willem II register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Dordrecht in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Willem II lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 60% and Dordrecht 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 42% | Dordrecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.31 xG and Dordrecht 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.702 / defence 1.377 | Dordrecht attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.304. Willem II's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Willem II games / 0 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 30% | Draw 29% | Dordrecht 40%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Dordrecht 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 80% | Dordrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 30% | Draw 29% | Dordrecht 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Willem II 1.31 / Dordrecht 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.702 / def 1.377 | Dordrecht attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Dordrecht xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Dordrecht kick off?
Willem II vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Willem II 3 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Willem II vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Dordrecht part of?
Willem II vs Dordrecht is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 30% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Willem II and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Dordrecht?
Record (5 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 2 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are Willem II and Dordrecht in?
Willem II (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.70) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.85x) against Willem II's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
30%
3.29
29%
3.42
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.83
1.53
Dordrecht xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
7%
15.15
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Willem II and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Willem II and 1.53 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Willem II have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 10W 12D 21L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Dordrecht's form line: 20W 17D 6L from 43 games, 1.79 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dordrecht are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Willem II.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.05 PPG from 21 outings (6W 4D 11L).
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 7W 10D 4L from 21 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.86 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 10W 12D 21L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 20W 17D 6L in their last 43 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.05 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Willem II or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Willem II have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Willem II
2
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Dordrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Willem II have won 5, Dordrecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Dordrecht 1-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Dordrecht?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Willem II, 71% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Willem II) and 57% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Willem II's games and 71% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Willem II's matches and 57% of Dordrecht's.
Do Willem II and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Dordrecht 3-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.31 xG and Dordrecht 1.53 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.70 / defence 1.38 against Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 30% | Draw 29% | Dordrecht 40%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 42%, Dordrecht 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Willem II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.