PEC Zwolle 1-7 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (80%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PEC Zwolle face PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PSV Eindhoven make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 3W 2D 5L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
PSV Eindhoven have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, PSV Eindhoven have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 3.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PSV Eindhoven are 1.30 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle in recent Eredivisie fixtures (2.60 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to PSV Eindhoven, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–4 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
PSV Eindhoven — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 57% versus PSV Eindhoven 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PEC Zwolle 62% | PSV Eindhoven 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 0.64 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.654 / defence 1.136 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.631 / defence 0.633. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.425. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PSV Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.633 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.631 — the away xG of 2.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 PEC Zwolle games / 56 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 6% | Draw 14% | PSV Eindhoven 80%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 16.67 | Draw 7.14 | PSV Eindhoven 1.25. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (80%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 40% | PSV Eindhoven 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 6% | Draw 14% | PSV Eindhoven 80% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 44% | xG PEC Zwolle 0.64 / PSV Eindhoven 2.64 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.654 / def 1.136 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.631 / def 0.633 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
2.64
PSV Eindhoven xG
44%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 7 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 6% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 80% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (3 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 3W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (0.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.64. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.63x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 2.64.
These ratings are built from 22/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-3 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
6%
16.21
14%
7.00
80%
1.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
11.6%
Away win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.28
2.64
PSV Eindhoven xG
16.21
6%
Home win
7.00
14%
Draw
1.26
80%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
7%
14.03
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
0%
–
42%
2.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 10.0 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 4.0 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.64 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 30W 10D 16L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 43W 8D 5L from 56 games, 2.45 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.86 PPG from 28 outings (16W 4D 8L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 18W 6D 4L from 28 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.84 scored and 0.89 conceded. PEC Zwolle's scoring rate against PSV Eindhoven's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 30W 10D 16L in their last 56 games (1.79 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 43W 8D 5L in their last 56 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.86 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.14 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: PSV Eindhoven have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 1-7 on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
7
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 6-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 50%, PSV Eindhoven 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for PEC Zwolle and 75% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; PSV Eindhoven in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of PEC Zwolle's games and 61% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 75% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 1-7 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat PEC Zwolle 1-7 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 0.64 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.64 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-7 for 8 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 2.64 projection by 4.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.65 / defence 1.14 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.63 / defence 0.63, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 6% | Draw 14% | PSV Eindhoven 80%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 80%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 62%, PSV Eindhoven 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.