Almere City FC 0-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Almere City FC and Feyenoord meet at Yanmar Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Almere City FC's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's home record at Yanmar Stadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Feyenoord have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Feyenoord are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Almere City FC, 1 for Feyenoord and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–6 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 48% versus Feyenoord 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 46% | Feyenoord 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 0.84 xG and Feyenoord 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.739 / defence 0.963 | Feyenoord attack 1.331 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.458. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Almere City FC games / 56 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 16% | Draw 23% | Feyenoord 61%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | Feyenoord 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 30% | Feyenoord 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 16% | Draw 23% | Feyenoord 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Almere City FC 0.84 / Feyenoord 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.739 / def 0.963 | Feyenoord attack 1.331 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Feyenoord xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Feyenoord kick off?
Almere City FC vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Feyenoord?
Almere City FC 0 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Almere City FC vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Feyenoord part of?
Almere City FC vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 16% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Almere City FC and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Feyenoord?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Feyenoord in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.74x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.33x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 22/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
16%
6.39
23%
4.28
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.71
1.87
Feyenoord xG
6.39
16%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
15%
6.49
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
2%
41.43
26%
3.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.87 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC come into this having played 56 games, going 26W 14D 16L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.39 PPG from 56 outings (41W 11D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Almere City FC's home form reads 12W 8D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.48 points per game from 27 outings (21W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.45 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Feyenoord in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 26W 14D 16L in their last 56 games (1.64 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 41W 11D 4L in their last 56 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.63 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.48 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Feyenoord have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 6-1 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almere City FC
0
Draws
4
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Feyenoord?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 0, Feyenoord have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Feyenoord 2-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 52%, Feyenoord 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Almere City FC and 70% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Feyenoord in 33%; Almere City FC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Almere City FC's games and 67% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Almere City FC's matches and 70% of Feyenoord's.
Do Almere City FC and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Almere City FC 0-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 0.84 xG and Feyenoord 1.87 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.74 / defence 0.96 against Feyenoord attack 1.33 / defence 0.74, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 16% | Draw 23% | Feyenoord 61%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 46%, Feyenoord 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.