PEC Zwolle 1-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 4W 1D 5L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, NAC Breda have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for PEC Zwolle, 1.20 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: PEC Zwolle 2W, NAC Breda 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with PEC Zwolle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 64% and NAC Breda 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 60% | NAC Breda 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 2.08 xG and NAC Breda 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.969 / defence 1.126 | NAC Breda attack 0.590 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.294. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 PEC Zwolle games / 8 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 64% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 14%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | NAC Breda 7.14. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 80% | NAC Breda 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 64% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG PEC Zwolle 2.08 / NAC Breda 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.969 / def 1.126 | NAC Breda attack 0.590 / def 1.358 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.86
NAC Breda xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda part of?
PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 64% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda?
Record (2 meetings): PEC Zwolle 2W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.59x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.56
14%
7.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.94
0.86
NAC Breda xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
7.38
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
58.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.86 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 11D 20L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.52 PPG from 42 outings (18W 10D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 7W 3D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.25 points per game from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.67 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 11W 11D 20L in their last 42 games (1.05 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 18W 10D 14L in their last 42 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.20 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 4, NAC Breda have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 2-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 60%, NAC Breda 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for PEC Zwolle and 60% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of PEC Zwolle's games and 55% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 60% of NAC Breda's.
Do PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat PEC Zwolle 1-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 2.08 xG and NAC Breda 0.86 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.1 short of their projected output. NAC Breda outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.97 / defence 1.13 against NAC Breda attack 0.59 / defence 1.36, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 64% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 14%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a NAC Breda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 60%, NAC Breda 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.