NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goffertstadion plays host to NEC Nijmegen versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Goffertstadion, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.50 for Fortuna Sittard. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — NEC Nijmegen lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 3–0 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 58% versus Fortuna Sittard 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 65% | Fortuna Sittard 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.85 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.070 / defence 0.944 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.085 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.321. Data: 52 NEC Nijmegen games / 52 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 28%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Fortuna Sittard 3.57. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 70% | Fortuna Sittard 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.85 / Fortuna Sittard 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.070 / def 0.944 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.085 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Fortuna Sittard xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
NEC Nijmegen 4 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 49% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (7 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 3W | Draws 3 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (1.07) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (1.08x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.42
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.21
1.35
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
4%
22.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.35 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 20W 13D 19L from 52 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 21L across 52 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.21 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 11W 6D 9L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 4W 9D 13L across 26 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.19 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 20W 13D 19L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.50 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 4-1 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
NEC Nijmegen
3
Draws
3
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 65%, Fortuna Sittard 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for NEC Nijmegen and 54% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 38% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 54% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Fortuna Sittard 4-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.85 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.35 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.08 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 28%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 65%, Fortuna Sittard 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.40 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.