NAC Breda 0-3 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven meet at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
NAC Breda's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
PSV Eindhoven have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PSV Eindhoven are 1.20 PPG clear of NAC Breda in recent Eredivisie fixtures (2.70 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, PSV Eindhoven in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
PSV Eindhoven — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 62% versus PSV Eindhoven 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 58% | PSV Eindhoven 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.41 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.003 / defence 0.924 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.733 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.217. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.733 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 NAC Breda games / 45 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 28% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 50%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.57 | Draw 4.55 | PSV Eindhoven 2.00. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 70% | PSV Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 28% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG NAC Breda 1.41 / PSV Eindhoven 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.003 / def 0.924 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.733 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.95
PSV Eindhoven xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven?
NAC Breda 0 - 3 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 28% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 50% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (1.00) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.73x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.95.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
28%
3.58
22%
4.55
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.36
1.95
PSV Eindhoven xG
3.58
28%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
14%
7.01
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
4%
25.11
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.95 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 10D 15L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PSV Eindhoven sit at 2.69 PPG from 45 outings (39W 4D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
NAC Breda's home form reads 12W 6D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have taken 2.48 points per game from 23 outings (18W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.29 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 20W 10D 15L in their last 45 games (1.56 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 39W 4D 2L in their last 45 (2.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.83 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.48 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 0-3 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 2-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 70%, PSV Eindhoven 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for NAC Breda and 74% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; PSV Eindhoven in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of NAC Breda's games and 56% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of NAC Breda's matches and 74% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 0-3 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat NAC Breda 0-3 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.41 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.95 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.4 short of their projected output. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.00 / defence 0.92 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.73 / defence 0.83, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 28% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 50%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 58%, PSV Eindhoven 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.