Heracles 1-1 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Utrecht (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heracles face Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host Utrecht at Asito Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's home record at Asito Stadion: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Utrecht have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Utrecht — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Utrecht have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Heracles's 1 victories.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Utrecht winning.
It is worth noting that Utrecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (52 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Utrecht in-play and half-time data (52 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 52% versus Utrecht 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 65% | Utrecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.28 xG and Utrecht 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.948 / defence 1.122 | Utrecht attack 1.366 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.312. Utrecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Heracles games / 53 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 24% | Draw 22% | Utrecht 54%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | Utrecht 1.85. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 70% | Utrecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Asito Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 24% | Draw 22% | Utrecht 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Heracles 1.28 / Utrecht 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.948 / def 1.122 | Utrecht attack 1.366 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Utrecht xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Utrecht kick off?
Heracles vs Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 January 2025 at Asito Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Utrecht?
Heracles 1 - 1 Utrecht.
Where is Heracles vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs Utrecht part of?
Heracles vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 24% chance of winning, Utrecht a 54% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Heracles and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Utrecht?
Record (5 meetings): Heracles 1W | Draws 0 | Utrecht 4W.
What form are Heracles and Utrecht in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Utrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.95) and Utrecht's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
24%
4.13
22%
4.64
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.30
2.01
Utrecht xG
4.13
24%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
13%
7.48
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
3%
30.90
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Heracles and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Heracles and 2.01 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 12D 27L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.79 PPG from 52 outings (26W 15D 11L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Heracles's home form reads 6W 9D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.83 points per game from 24 outings (12W 8D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.71 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht in 65%.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 13W 12D 27L in their last 52 games (0.98 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 26W 15D 11L in their last 52 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Utrecht away?
Utrecht's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.12 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and Utrecht runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Utrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Heracles
2
Draws
5
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 1, Utrecht have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Heracles 0-0 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 58%, Utrecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Heracles and 58% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Heracles's games and 67% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Heracles's matches and 58% of Utrecht's.
Do Heracles and Utrecht tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles and Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles and Utrecht finished level at 1-1 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.28 xG and Utrecht 2.01 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Utrecht landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Utrecht attack 1.37 / defence 0.81, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 24% | Draw 22% | Utrecht 54%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 65%, Utrecht 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.