Heracles 1-2 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host NEC Nijmegen at Asito Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Asito Stadion, Heracles have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Heracles) versus 1.50 (NEC Nijmegen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Heracles, 2 for NEC Nijmegen and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Heracles winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 57% versus NEC Nijmegen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 63% | NEC Nijmegen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.36 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.081 / defence 1.095 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.821 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.326. NEC Nijmegen's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 67 Heracles games / 67 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 39% | Draw 30% | NEC Nijmegen 31%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | NEC Nijmegen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 90% | NEC Nijmegen 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Asito Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 39% | Draw 30% | NEC Nijmegen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Heracles 1.36 / NEC Nijmegen 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.081 / def 1.095 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.821 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Heracles (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.19
NEC Nijmegen xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Asito Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Heracles 1 - 2 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 39% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Heracles and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (5 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 2W.
What form are Heracles and NEC Nijmegen in?
Heracles (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.38
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.55
1.19
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Heracles and 1.19 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Heracles have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 18W 17D 32L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
NEC Nijmegen's form line: 25W 18D 24L from 67 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.06 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Heracles have posted 1.42 PPG from 33 outings (12W 11D 10L).
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 11W 8D 14L from 33 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.01 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.72 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
NEC Nijmegen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 18W 17D 32L in their last 67 games (1.06 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 25W 18D 24L in their last 67 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Heracles's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.42 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
NEC Nijmegen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Heracles
1
Draws
5
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and NEC Nijmegen?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 67%, NEC Nijmegen 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Heracles) and 54% (NEC Nijmegen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Heracles's recent matches and 42% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Heracles's matches and 54% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Heracles and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NEC Nijmegen defy the odds to beat Heracles 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Heracles 1-2 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.36 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.19 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.08 / defence 1.09 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.82 / defence 0.78, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 39% | Draw 30% | NEC Nijmegen 31%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual NEC Nijmegen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 63%, NEC Nijmegen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.06 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.