Heerenveen 2-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heerenveen vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heerenveen host Almere City FC at Abe Lenstra Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Heerenveen — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heerenveen have posted 5W 4D 1L at Abe Lenstra Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Heerenveen are significantly better at Abe Lenstra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Almere City FC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Heerenveen) versus 0.90 (Almere City FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Heerenveen have won 1, Almere City FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Heerenveen trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Almere City FC trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 56% versus Almere City FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 64% | Almere City FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.81 xG and Almere City FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.107 / defence 1.011 | Almere City FC attack 0.703 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.301. Data: 63 Heerenveen games / 63 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 58% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Almere City FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Heerenveen (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Heerenveen 60% | Almere City FC 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 58% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Heerenveen 1.81 / Almere City FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 1.107 / def 1.011 | Almere City FC attack 0.703 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Almere City FC xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs Almere City FC kick off?
Heerenveen vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Almere City FC?
Heerenveen 2 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Heerenveen vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Almere City FC part of?
Heerenveen vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 58% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Heerenveen and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Almere City FC?
Record (3 meetings): Heerenveen 1W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Heerenveen and Almere City FC in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Heerenveen's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.20
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.73
0.93
Almere City FC xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
3%
33.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Heerenveen and 0.93 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heerenveen come into this having played 63 games, going 19W 14D 30L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.84 PPG from 63 outings (11W 20D 32L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heerenveen on 1.13 PPG, Almere City FC on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Heerenveen's home form reads 13W 9D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Heerenveen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 0.90 points per game from 31 outings (6W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heerenveen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heerenveen are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.84 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 19W 14D 30L in their last 63 games (1.13 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 11W 20D 32L in their last 63 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Almere City FC away?
Heerenveen's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.55 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heerenveen and Almere City FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Heerenveen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heerenveen's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Heerenveen
1
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 2, Almere City FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Heerenveen 2-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and Almere City FC?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 61%, Almere City FC 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Heerenveen) and 45% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Heerenveen's recent matches and 36% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heerenveen vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Heerenveen's recent games and 45% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heerenveen and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Almere City FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Almere City FC 2-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.81 xG and Almere City FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Almere City FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 58% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 18%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 64%, Almere City FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.13 PPG, Almere City FC 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.