Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Groningen haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 4W 2D 4L at Euroborg — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. AZ Alkmaar haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Groningen 1.70 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
AZ Alkmaar have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Groningen's 2 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 3–0 with Groningen winning.
It is worth noting that AZ Alkmaar have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 53% versus AZ Alkmaar 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 53% | AZ Alkmaar 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.62 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.974 / defence 0.969 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.905 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.309. Data: 34 Groningen games / 34 AZ Alkmaar games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Groningen 45% | Draw 32% | AZ Alkmaar 24%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | AZ Alkmaar 4.17. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | AZ Alkmaar 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 45% | Draw 32% | AZ Alkmaar 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Groningen 1.62 / AZ Alkmaar 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.974 / def 0.969 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.905 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Groningen (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.15
AZ Alkmaar xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Euroborg.
Where is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 45% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Groningen and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (8 meetings): Groningen 2W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 5W.
What form are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Groningen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.97x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.17
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.77
1.15
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
5%
21.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Groningen and 1.15 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 34 games, going 14W 6D 14L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. Groningen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.53 PPG from 34 outings (14W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. AZ Alkmaar haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.41 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 7W 4D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.71 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Pre-Season
AZ Alkmaar
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 14W 6D 14L in their last 34 games (1.41 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 14W 10D 10L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Groningen's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.47 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Groningen
1
Draws
5
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 53%, AZ Alkmaar 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Groningen) and 53% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Groningen's recent matches and 53% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Groningen's matches and 53% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Groningen and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.