Feyenoord 2-1 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Feyenoord face Twente.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Feijenoord plays host to Feyenoord versus Twente in Eredivisie (matchday 8). Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Feyenoord have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feyenoord's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Twente (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Twente's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Feyenoord, 2 for Twente and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2024, ended Feyenoord 0–0 Twente — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Twente half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 55% versus Twente 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 65% | Twente 62%). Note also that Twente surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Feyenoord recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 80% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.51 xG and Twente 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.123 / defence 0.813 | Twente attack 1.336 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.258. Twente have an above-average attack rating of 1.336, which lifts their away xG to 1.36. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 40 games and Twente's last 41.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 40% | Draw 27% | Twente 33%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.52 | Draw 3.66 | Twente 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and Twente's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 20% (last 10 home games) | Twente 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 40% | Draw 27% | Twente 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Feyenoord 1.51 / Twente 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.123 / def 0.813 | Twente attack 1.336 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Twente xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs Twente FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs Twente kick off?
Feyenoord vs Twente kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Twente?
Feyenoord 2 - 1 Twente.
Where is Feyenoord vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Twente part of?
Feyenoord vs Twente is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 8) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 40% chance of winning, Twente a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Feyenoord and Twente will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Feyenoord vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Twente's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Twente's attack (1.34x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 40 games and Twente's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.66
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.88
1.36
Twente xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs Twente Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.36 for Twente, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 28W 10D 2L from 40 games, a 2.35 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five.
Twente, meanwhile, have gone 24W 8D 8L across 40 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.35 PPG for Feyenoord against 2.00 for Twente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 14W 4D 1L from their last 19 home games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Twente's away record stands at 8W 5D 6L across their last 19 away games, a 1.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Twente's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.95 scored and 1.00 conceded. Feyenoord's scoring rate against Twente's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
Twente
Early Season
Feyenoord (Home) vs Twente (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Early Season
Twente
Early Season
❓ Feyenoord vs Twente Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and Twente in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 28W 10D 2L in their last 40 games (2.35 PPG), while Twente have gone 24W 8D 8L in their last 40 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Twente away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.42 PPG; Twente away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Twente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Twente in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Feyenoord and Twente, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won Twente 2-6 Feyenoord on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Twente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Feyenoord
4
Draws
3
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs Twente H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Twente?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 3, Twente have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Twente last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Twente 2-0 Feyenoord.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 42%, Twente 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Feyenoord and 68% for Twente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs Twente Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and Twente matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 58% of Twente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feyenoord and Twente matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Feyenoord's matches and 68% of Twente's.
Do Feyenoord and Twente matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 74% of Twente's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Twente 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Twente 2-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.51 xG and Twente 1.36 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.12 / defence 0.81 against Twente attack 1.34 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 40% | Draw 27% | Twente 33%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 65%, Twente 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Twente's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feyenoord 2.35 PPG, Twente 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Twente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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