Heerenveen 1-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees PEC Zwolle travel to Abe Lenstra Stadion to take on Heerenveen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heerenveen stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Heerenveen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heerenveen at Abe Lenstra Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heerenveen at 0.80 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Heerenveen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PEC Zwolle in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Heerenveen have won 2, PEC Zwolle 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Heerenveen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 56% versus PEC Zwolle 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 68% | PEC Zwolle 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.75 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.155 / defence 1.052 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.809 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.258. Data: 41 Heerenveen games / 41 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 52% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 22%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | PEC Zwolle 4.55. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heerenveen are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 60% | PEC Zwolle 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 52% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Heerenveen 1.75 / PEC Zwolle 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 1.155 / def 1.052 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.809 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.07
PEC Zwolle xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Heerenveen 1 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 52% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
Record (4 meetings): Heerenveen 2W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heerenveen's attack rating (1.16) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.83
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.82
1.07
PEC Zwolle xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
4%
26.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.07 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heerenveen's recent record stands at 12W 8D 21L from 41 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Heerenveen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 20L across 41 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heerenveen on 1.07 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heerenveen have managed 8W 4D 8L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 4W 7D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heerenveen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.27 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 12W 8D 21L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 11W 10D 20L in their last 41 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Heerenveen's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.40 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Heerenveen's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
3
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Heerenveen 4-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 60%, PEC Zwolle 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Heerenveen and 60% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Heerenveen's games and 65% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Heerenveen's matches and 60% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.75 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.07 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.16 / defence 1.05 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 52% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 22%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 68%, PEC Zwolle 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.07 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.