Excelsior 2-4 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Excelsior welcome Feyenoord to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Excelsior have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Feyenoord in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Excelsior, 2 for Feyenoord and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 50% versus Feyenoord 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 61% | Feyenoord 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.24 xG and Feyenoord 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.926 / defence 1.099 | Feyenoord attack 1.401 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.407. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.401 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Excelsior games / 46 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 19% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 57%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | Feyenoord 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 60% | Feyenoord 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 19% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Excelsior 1.24 / Feyenoord 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.926 / def 1.099 | Feyenoord attack 1.401 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Feyenoord xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Feyenoord kick off?
Excelsior vs Feyenoord kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Excelsior 2 - 4 Feyenoord.
Where is Excelsior vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Feyenoord part of?
Excelsior vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 19% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Excelsior and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Feyenoord?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 2W.
What form are Excelsior and Feyenoord in?
Excelsior (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
19%
5.19
24%
4.17
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.40
2.17
Feyenoord xG
5.19
19%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
11%
8.72
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
2%
45.27
16%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.17 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 11D 23L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.41 PPG from 46 outings (34W 9D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.39 PPG clear of Excelsior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Excelsior's home form reads 9W 6D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.39 points per game from 23 outings (17W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.54 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 12W 11D 23L in their last 46 games (1.02 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 34W 9D 3L in their last 46 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.43 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.39 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and Feyenoord runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Feyenoord have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Feyenoord won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Excelsior
0
Draws
6
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Feyenoord?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 0, Feyenoord have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Feyenoord 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 56%, Feyenoord 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Excelsior and 70% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 30%; Excelsior have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Excelsior's games and 70% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Excelsior's matches and 70% of Feyenoord's.
Do Excelsior and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Excelsior 2-4 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.24 xG and Feyenoord 2.17 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Feyenoord outscored their 2.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Feyenoord attack 1.40 / defence 0.78, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 19% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 57%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 61%, Feyenoord 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.