AZ Alkmaar 3-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees FC Volendam travel to AFAS Stadion to take on AZ Alkmaar. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar at AFAS Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Volendam — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 0 for FC Volendam and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
FC Volendam trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 58% and FC Volendam 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 60% | FC Volendam 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.66 xG and FC Volendam 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.264 / defence 0.693 | FC Volendam attack 0.908 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.462. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AZ Alkmaar's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 AZ Alkmaar games / 46 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 73% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 9%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | FC Volendam 11.11. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 50% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 73% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 57% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.66 / FC Volendam 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.264 / def 0.693 | FC Volendam attack 0.908 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FC Volendam xG
57%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
AZ Alkmaar 3 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 73% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 1.26x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
73%
1.37
18%
5.66
9%
10.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.58
0.92
FC Volendam xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.66
18%
Draw
10.81
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
7%
14.34
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
1%
155.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.92 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 28W 9D 8L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 12W 7D 26L from 45 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Venue Form
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 2.05 PPG from 22 outings (13W 6D 3L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 1W 5D 16L from 22 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.22 scored and 2.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 64%.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 28W 9D 8L in their last 45 games (2.07 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 12W 7D 26L in their last 45 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or FC Volendam away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.05 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.36 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when AZ Alkmaar won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
0
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, FC Volendam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 64%, FC Volendam 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for AZ Alkmaar and 68% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Volendam in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 59% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 68% of FC Volendam's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat FC Volendam 3-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.66 xG and FC Volendam 0.92 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.26 / defence 0.69 against FC Volendam attack 0.91 / defence 1.22, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 73% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 9%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 60%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Volendam's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.