Emmen 2-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Emmen at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Emmen face Dordrecht.

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Match Analysis

Emmen host Dordrecht at De Oude Meerdijk in Eredivisie (Relegation Round). Kick-off is Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 18:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Emmen have gone 3W 0D 7L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Emmen at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Dordrecht have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Emmen) versus 0.90 (Dordrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Emmen, 2 for Dordrecht and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Emmen 1–2 Dordrecht — a Dordrecht win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Emmen trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Dordrecht trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 55% versus Dordrecht 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 55% | Dordrecht 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.97 xG and Dordrecht 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.992 / defence 1.001 | Dordrecht attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.474. Data: built from Emmen's last 34 games and Dordrecht's last 0.

Result probabilities: Emmen 53% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 23%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.90 | Draw 4.10 | Dordrecht 4.37. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Emmen's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Emmen 40% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 60% (last 10 away games).

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