Dordrecht 0-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Emmen at M-Scores Stadion in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at M-Scores Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Emmen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Emmen have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dordrecht 1.00 PPG, Emmen 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 2, Emmen 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Emmen trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 54% versus Emmen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 62% | Emmen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.49 xG and Emmen 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Emmen attack 0.998 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.474. Data: 0 Dordrecht games / 34 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 33% | Draw 26% | Emmen 41%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Emmen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 30% | Emmen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 33% | Draw 26% | Emmen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Dordrecht 1.49 / Emmen 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Emmen attack 0.998 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Emmen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Emmen xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Emmen kick off?
Dordrecht vs Emmen kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Dordrecht 0 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Dordrecht vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Emmen part of?
Dordrecht vs Emmen is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 33% chance of winning, Emmen a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Dordrecht and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Record (5 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 1 | Emmen 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Emmen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.85) and Emmen's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
33%
3.06
26%
3.83
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.18
1.69
Emmen xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
6%
16.61
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.69 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 9W 9D 21L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emmen's form line: 8W 11D 20L from 39 games, 0.90 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 0.92 PPG, Emmen on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 4W 1D 14L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.03 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 9W 9D 21L in their last 39 games (0.92 PPG), while Emmen have gone 8W 11D 20L in their last 39 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Emmen away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.16 PPG; Emmen away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Dordrecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
1
Draws
4
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 5, Emmen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Dordrecht 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 42%, Emmen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Dordrecht and 68% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Dordrecht have failed to score in 37% of games; Emmen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Dordrecht's games and 68% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Dordrecht's matches and 68% of Emmen's.
Do Dordrecht and Emmen tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Emmen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Dordrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Dordrecht 0-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.49 xG and Emmen 1.69 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Emmen attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 0/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 33% | Draw 26% | Emmen 41%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 62%, Emmen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Emmen's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 0.92 PPG, Emmen 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.