AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 14 as AZ Alkmaar welcome Heracles to AFAS Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's home record at AFAS Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Heracles have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (AZ Alkmaar) versus 1.10 (Heracles). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AZ Alkmaar, 2 for Heracles and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2024, ended 0–5 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Heracles trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 53% versus Heracles 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 68% | Heracles 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.61 xG and Heracles 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.263 / defence 1.094 | Heracles attack 0.687 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.262. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 2.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 AZ Alkmaar games / 47 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 73% | Draw 16% | Heracles 11%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Heracles 9.09. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 80% | Heracles 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 73% | Draw 16% | Heracles 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 57% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.61 / Heracles 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.263 / def 1.094 | Heracles attack 0.687 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (73%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Heracles xG
57%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 0 Heracles.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 73% chance of winning, Heracles a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Heracles?
Record (4 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 1 | Heracles 2W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Heracles in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Heracles (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.61. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
73%
1.37
16%
6.38
11%
8.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.56
0.95
Heracles xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.38
16%
Draw
8.77
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
7%
13.57
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
1%
119.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.95 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 47 games, going 25W 10D 12L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 0.98 PPG from 47 outings (12W 10D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.65 points per game from 23 outings (4W 3D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.17 scored and 2.11 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Heracles in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 25W 10D 12L in their last 47 games (1.81 PPG), while Heracles have gone 12W 10D 25L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Heracles away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.87 PPG; Heracles away: 0.65 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Heracles in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AZ Alkmaar and Heracles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AZ Alkmaar have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Heracles won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, Heracles have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Heracles?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 56%, Heracles 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for AZ Alkmaar and 70% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Heracles in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 44% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 70% of Heracles's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Heracles tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Heracles in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out Heracles 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Heracles 1-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.61 xG and Heracles 0.95 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Heracles landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.26 / defence 1.09 against Heracles attack 0.69 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 73% | Draw 16% | Heracles 11%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 68%, Heracles 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Heracles's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.