Almere City FC 1-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
NAC Breda's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Almere City FC, 0.60 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 44% versus NAC Breda 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 49% | NAC Breda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.43 xG and NAC Breda 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.685 / defence 1.369 | NAC Breda attack 0.722 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.270. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Almere City FC games / 25 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 41% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 33%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | NAC Breda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Almere City FC 40% | NAC Breda 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 41% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Almere City FC 1.43 / NAC Breda 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.685 / def 1.369 | NAC Breda attack 0.722 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
NAC Breda xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs NAC Breda kick off?
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 March 2025 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda part of?
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 41% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Almere City FC and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
Record (5 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and NAC Breda in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.69) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.72x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.88
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.26
NAC Breda xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.26 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 10W 18D 31L from 59 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 22L across 59 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours NAC Breda by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 5W 8D 15L from 28 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 9W 5D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.54 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 10W 18D 31L in their last 59 games (0.81 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 23W 14D 22L in their last 59 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.82 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, NAC Breda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Almere City FC 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 46%, NAC Breda 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Almere City FC) and 61% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 39% of games; NAC Breda in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 54% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Almere City FC's matches and 61% of NAC Breda's.
Do Almere City FC and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and NAC Breda finished level at 1-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.43 xG and NAC Breda 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.37 against NAC Breda attack 0.72 / defence 1.26, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 41% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 33%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 49%, NAC Breda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.