Telstar 1-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates NAC Breda at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to 711 Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Telstar have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar at 711 Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Telstar are significantly better at 711 Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, NAC Breda have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. NAC Breda are 1.10 PPG clear of Telstar in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Telstar register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, NAC Breda in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Telstar, 2 for NAC Breda and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Telstar 49% and NAC Breda 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 48% | NAC Breda 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.24 xG and NAC Breda 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.806 / defence 1.157 | NAC Breda attack 1.253 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.300. NAC Breda have an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Telstar games / 62 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 24% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 51%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | NAC Breda 1.96. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 70% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 24% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Telstar 1.24 / NAC Breda 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.806 / def 1.157 | NAC Breda attack 1.253 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.88
NAC Breda xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs NAC Breda kick off?
Telstar vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs NAC Breda?
Telstar 1 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Telstar vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs NAC Breda part of?
Telstar vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 24% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Telstar and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and NAC Breda?
Record (5 meetings): Telstar 1W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Telstar and NAC Breda in?
Telstar (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.81) and NAC Breda's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.25x) against Telstar's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
24%
4.21
25%
3.99
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.12
1.88
NAC Breda xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
15%
6.58
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
4%
27.67
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Telstar and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Telstar and 1.88 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Telstar have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 19W 15D 29L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 28W 11D 24L from 63 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Telstar against 1.51 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Telstar have posted 1.39 PPG from 31 outings (12W 7D 12L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 13W 4D 14L from 31 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Telstar are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.73 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 71%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 19W 15D 29L in their last 63 games (1.14 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 28W 11D 24L in their last 63 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or NAC Breda away?
Telstar's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.39 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Telstar have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 1-4 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
3
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, NAC Breda have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Telstar 3-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and NAC Breda?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Telstar see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 52%, NAC Breda 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Telstar and 74% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Telstar's games and 71% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Telstar's matches and 74% of NAC Breda's.
Do Telstar and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Telstar and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar and NAC Breda finished level at 1-1 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.24 xG and NAC Breda 1.88 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against NAC Breda attack 1.25 / defence 0.92, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 24% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 51%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 48%, NAC Breda 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.14 PPG, NAC Breda 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.