Den Bosch 0-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Jong AZ travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 February 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch at Stadion De Vliert this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Den Bosch 0.90 PPG, Jong AZ 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong AZ in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Den Bosch, 1 for Jong AZ and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jong AZ trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 52% versus Jong AZ 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 65% | Jong AZ 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.38 xG and Jong AZ 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.725 / defence 1.142 | Jong AZ attack 0.977 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.300. Den Bosch's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Den Bosch games / 63 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 34% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 37%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Jong AZ 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 60% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 34% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Den Bosch 1.38 / Jong AZ 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.725 / def 1.142 | Jong AZ attack 0.977 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Jong AZ xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Den Bosch 0 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 34% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Record (5 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (0.72) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
34%
2.90
28%
3.57
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.83
1.45
Jong AZ xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
8%
12.35
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.45 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 14W 12D 37L from 63 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 24L across 63 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong AZ by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 10W 7D 14L from 31 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 9W 5D 17L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.56 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 60%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 14W 12D 37L in their last 63 games (0.86 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 25W 14D 24L in their last 63 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong AZ away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.19 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Den Bosch won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
5
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Jong AZ have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Jong AZ 2-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 61%, Jong AZ 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Den Bosch and 68% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 29% of games; Jong AZ in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Den Bosch's games and 64% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Den Bosch's matches and 68% of Jong AZ's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Den Bosch's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 26, as Den Bosch and Jong AZ drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.38 xG and Jong AZ 1.45 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Jong AZ landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.72 / defence 1.14 against Jong AZ attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 34% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 37%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 65%, Jong AZ 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong AZ's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.