Telstar 0-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Telstar at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to 711 Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Telstar (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 711 Stadion, Telstar have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Telstar are significantly better at 711 Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Telstar, 0.80 for Den Bosch — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Telstar are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Nov 2023, ended 4–1 with Telstar winning.
The historical record gives Telstar a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Telstar — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 48% versus Den Bosch 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 47% | Den Bosch 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.38 xG and Den Bosch 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.778 / defence 1.180 | Den Bosch attack 0.775 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.383. Telstar's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Telstar games / 60 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 38% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 33%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Den Bosch 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 70% | Den Bosch 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 38% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Telstar 1.38 / Den Bosch 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.778 / def 1.180 | Den Bosch attack 0.775 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Telstar (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Den Bosch xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Den Bosch kick off?
Telstar vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 January 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Telstar 0 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Telstar vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Den Bosch part of?
Telstar vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 38% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Telstar and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Den Bosch?
Record (5 meetings): Telstar 4W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Telstar and Den Bosch in?
Telstar (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.78) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.78x) against Telstar's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.55
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.64
1.26
Den Bosch xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Telstar and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Telstar and 1.26 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Telstar have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 18W 14D 28L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch's form line: 14W 10D 36L from 60 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Telstar against 0.87 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Telstar have posted 1.34 PPG from 29 outings (11W 6D 12L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 4W 4D 21L from 29 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Telstar are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.17 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 18W 14D 28L in their last 60 games (1.13 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 14W 10D 36L in their last 60 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Den Bosch away?
Telstar's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.34 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won 1-4 on 17 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Telstar
3
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Telstar have won 6, Den Bosch have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Telstar 2-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Den Bosch?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Telstar see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 52%, Den Bosch 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Telstar) and 62% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 31% of games; Den Bosch in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Telstar's recent matches and 45% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Telstar vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Telstar's matches and 62% of Den Bosch's.
Do Telstar and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Telstar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 23, as Telstar and Den Bosch drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.38 xG and Den Bosch 1.26 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.78 / defence 1.18 against Den Bosch attack 0.78 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 38% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 33%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 47%, Den Bosch 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Den Bosch's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.13 PPG, Den Bosch 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.