Den Bosch 0-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours Helmond Sport — this Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Helmond Sport travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Den Bosch stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Den Bosch at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Helmond Sport have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Den Bosch) versus 0.80 (Helmond Sport). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Helmond Sport have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Den Bosch.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Den Bosch 0–1 Helmond Sport — a Helmond Sport win.
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Helmond Sport trading profile (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 54% versus Helmond Sport 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 66% | Helmond Sport 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.57 xG and Helmond Sport 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.817 / defence 1.232 | Helmond Sport attack 0.912 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.349. Den Bosch's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Helmond Sport's projected output up. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 61 games and Helmond Sport's last 61.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 38% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 36%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.62 | Draw 3.82 | Helmond Sport 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 70% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 38% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Den Bosch 1.57 / Helmond Sport 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.817 / def 1.232 | Helmond Sport attack 0.912 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Helmond Sport xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 2 February 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
Den Bosch 0 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport part of?
Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 38% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Den Bosch and Helmond Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (0.82) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Den Bosch's last 61 games and Helmond Sport's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.82
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.09
1.51
Helmond Sport xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.51 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 14W 11D 36L from 61 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 27L across 61 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 0.87 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 10W 6D 13L from their last 29 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 6W 7D 16L across their last 29 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.21 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
Den Bosch (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Den Bosch
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are Den Bosch and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 14W 11D 36L in their last 61 games (0.87 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 19W 15D 27L in their last 61 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Helmond Sport away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.24 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Den Bosch's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
3
Draws
4
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Helmond Sport?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Den Bosch have won 3, Helmond Sport have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Den Bosch 2-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Helmond Sport?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 66%, Helmond Sport 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Den Bosch and 52% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Den Bosch and Helmond Sport matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Den Bosch's games and 52% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Den Bosch and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Den Bosch's matches and 52% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Den Bosch and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 72% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Den Bosch's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 24, as Den Bosch and Helmond Sport drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.57 xG and Helmond Sport 1.51 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Helmond Sport landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.82 / defence 1.23 against Helmond Sport attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 38% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 36%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 66%, Helmond Sport 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.87 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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