Roda 1-3 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 48%, yet in-form Heracles provide a compelling counter-argument — this Roda vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Heracles in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 11 December 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Heracles (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Heracles are 1.10 PPG clear of Roda in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.40 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus Heracles 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | Heracles 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.97 xG and Heracles 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.087 / defence 0.988 | Heracles attack 1.163 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.347. Data: 54 Roda games / 16 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 48% | Draw 22% | Heracles 30%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | Heracles 3.33. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heracles (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Roda 70% | Heracles 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 48% | Draw 22% | Heracles 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Roda 1.97 / Heracles 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.087 / def 0.988 | Heracles attack 1.163 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Roda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Heracles xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Heracles kick off?
Roda vs Heracles kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Heracles?
Roda 1 - 3 Heracles.
Where is Roda vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Heracles part of?
Roda vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 48% chance of winning, Heracles a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Roda and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and Heracles in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Heracles (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Roda's attack rating (1.09) and Heracles's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (1.16x) against Roda's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
48%
2.09
22%
4.60
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Roda xG
Total xG
3.52
1.55
Heracles xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
4%
23.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Roda and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Roda and 1.55 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Roda's recent record stands at 23W 16D 13L from 52 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 23L across 52 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Roda against 1.37 for Heracles. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Roda have managed 14W 7D 4L from 25 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 7W 1D 17L across 25 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.50 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Heracles in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 23W 16D 13L in their last 52 games (1.63 PPG), while Heracles have gone 21W 8D 23L in their last 52 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Heracles away?
Roda's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.96 PPG; Heracles away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Roda
0
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Heracles?
From 2 meetings on record, Roda have won 0, Heracles have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2023, when Heracles 1-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 56%, Heracles 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Roda and 64% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Heracles in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Roda's recent matches and 40% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Roda's matches and 64% of Heracles's.
Do Roda and Heracles tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Heracles in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Roda 1-3 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.97 xG and Heracles 1.55 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Roda fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Heracles outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Heracles attack 1.16 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 48% | Draw 22% | Heracles 30%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, Heracles 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.63 PPG, Heracles 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.