Roda vs Den Bosch – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as Roda welcome Den Bosch to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Den Bosch — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Roda) versus 1.30 (Den Bosch). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Den Bosch in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Roda, 2 for Den Bosch and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 60% and Den Bosch 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 50% | Den Bosch 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.53 xG and Den Bosch 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.879 / defence 0.814 | Den Bosch attack 0.800 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 48 Roda games / 49 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 51% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 24%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Den Bosch 4.17. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Roda 60% | Den Bosch 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 51% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Roda 1.53 / Den Bosch 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.879 / def 0.814 | Den Bosch attack 0.800 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Roda (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Den Bosch xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Den Bosch kick off?
Roda vs Den Bosch is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 11 December 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Where is Roda vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Den Bosch part of?
Roda vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 51% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Roda and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
Record (10 meetings): Roda 4W | Draws 4 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.88) and Den Bosch's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.88
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Roda xG
Total xG
2.48
0.95
Den Bosch xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
5%
19.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Roda and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Roda and 0.95 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 18W 19D 13L from 50 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 22L across 50 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.46 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 7W 10D 8L from 25 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 7W 3D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.62 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Den Bosch in 76%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 18W 19D 13L in their last 50 games (1.46 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 17W 11D 22L in their last 50 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Den Bosch away?
Roda's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.24 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Roda
4
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Den Bosch have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Den Bosch?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 56%, Den Bosch 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Roda) and 72% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Roda's games and 68% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Roda's matches and 72% of Den Bosch's.
Do Roda and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.