Roda 0-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Roda welcome Den Bosch to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Roda) versus 1.40 (Den Bosch). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Roda's 30% rate and Den Bosch's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Roda, 2 for Den Bosch and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 55% versus Den Bosch 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 53% | Den Bosch 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.46 xG and Den Bosch 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.985 / defence 0.895 | Den Bosch attack 0.900 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.246. Data: 64 Roda games / 64 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 47% | Draw 27% | Den Bosch 26%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Den Bosch 3.85. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 30% | Den Bosch 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 47% | Draw 27% | Den Bosch 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Roda 1.46 / Den Bosch 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.985 / def 0.895 | Den Bosch attack 0.900 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Roda (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Den Bosch xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Den Bosch kick off?
Roda vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Den Bosch?
Roda 0 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Roda vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Den Bosch part of?
Roda vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 47% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Roda and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
Record (7 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 2 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.98) and Den Bosch's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.69
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Roda xG
Total xG
2.46
1.00
Den Bosch xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Roda and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Roda and 1.00 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 29W 19D 16L from 64 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 29L across 64 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 19W 7D 5L from 31 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 10W 5D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.22 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 29W 19D 16L in their last 64 games (1.66 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 20W 15D 29L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Den Bosch away?
Roda's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.06 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Roda or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Roda
4
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Den Bosch have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Den Bosch?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 45%, Den Bosch 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Roda) and 52% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Den Bosch in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Roda's recent matches and 36% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Roda's recent games and 52% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Roda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 27, as Roda and Den Bosch drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.46 xG and Den Bosch 1.00 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Roda fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Den Bosch attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 47% | Draw 27% | Den Bosch 26%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 53%, Den Bosch 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Den Bosch's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.