Roda 1-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and Cambuur meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Monday 29 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cambuur (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Cambuur arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Roda, 1 for Cambuur and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Cambuur winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Roda — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cambuur — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus Cambuur 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | Cambuur 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.11 xG and Cambuur 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.842 / defence 1.206 | Cambuur attack 1.116 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.385. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Roda games / 46 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 22% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 55%. Fair-value odds: Roda 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Cambuur 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Roda 60% | Cambuur 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 29 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 22% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Roda 1.11 / Cambuur 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.842 / def 1.206 | Cambuur attack 1.116 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Cambuur xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Cambuur kick off?
Roda vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 29 September 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Cambuur?
Roda 1 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Roda vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Cambuur part of?
Roda vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 22% chance of winning, Cambuur a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Roda and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Cambuur?
Record (4 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 2 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Roda and Cambuur in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.84x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.12x) against Roda's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
22%
4.46
23%
4.43
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Roda xG
Total xG
2.97
1.86
Cambuur xG
4.46
22%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
16%
6.45
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
3%
28.77
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Roda and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Roda and 1.86 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Roda have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 17W 12D 17L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur's form line: 27W 7D 12L from 46 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Roda.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 13W 3D 7L from 23 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.74 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 17W 12D 17L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 27W 7D 12L in their last 46 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.61 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Roda or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cambuur in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Roda
4
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Roda have won 1, Cambuur have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 44%, Cambuur 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Roda) and 44% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Cambuur in 39%; Roda have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Roda's recent matches and 39% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Roda's recent games and 44% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Cambuur tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda and Cambuur finished level at 1-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.11 xG and Cambuur 1.86 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against Cambuur attack 1.12 / defence 0.76, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 22% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 55%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, Cambuur 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambuur's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.