Jong Utrecht 1-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 40%, yet in-form Roda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch plays host to Jong Utrecht versus Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 19 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Utrecht (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's home record at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
Roda have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Roda are 0.90 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Roda have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Jong Utrecht's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2025, ended 1–3 with Roda winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Roda have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 67% and Roda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 67% | Roda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.33 xG and Roda 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 1.001 / defence 1.290 | Roda attack 0.629 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Roda's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Jong Utrecht games / 48 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 27% | Roda 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Roda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Roda (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 60% | Roda 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 27% | Roda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.33 / Roda 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 1.001 / def 1.290 | Roda attack 0.629 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Roda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Roda kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Roda kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 October 2026 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 2 Roda.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Roda part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Roda is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 40% chance of winning, Roda a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Roda?
Record (9 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 2 | Roda 6W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Roda in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (1.00) and Roda's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.63x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.73
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.52
1.19
Roda xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.19 for Roda, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 14W 11D 23L from 48 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 16W 19D 13L across 48 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 1.40 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 9W 6D 9L from 24 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 10W 9D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.40 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Roda in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 11D 23L in their last 48 games (1.10 PPG), while Roda have gone 16W 19D 13L in their last 48 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.38 PPG; Roda away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
7
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, Roda have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when Jong Utrecht 1-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Jong Utrecht, 62% for Roda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Jong Utrecht and 54% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Jong Utrecht's games and 62% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 54% of Roda's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Roda tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat Jong Utrecht 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong Utrecht 1-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.33 xG and Roda 1.19 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.00 / defence 1.29 against Roda attack 0.63 / defence 0.72, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 27% | Roda 33%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 67%, Roda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 1.10 PPG, Roda 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.