Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host De Graafschap at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 25 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Utrecht 0.70 PPG, De Graafschap 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Utrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
De Graafschap have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Jong Utrecht's 1 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with De Graafschap winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 67% and De Graafschap 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Utrecht 67% | De Graafschap 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.90 xG and De Graafschap 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 1.001 / defence 1.290 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 48 Jong Utrecht games / 48 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 38%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.50 | Draw 4.76 | De Graafschap 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 60% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 25 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.90 / De Graafschap 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 1.001 / def 1.290 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.85
De Graafschap xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Monday 25 January 2027 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 40% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 38% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 4 | De Graafschap 5W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
40%
2.48
21%
4.67
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.75
1.85
De Graafschap xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.54
Clean Sheet
16%
6.37
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
6%
15.78
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.85 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 14W 11D 24L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 20W 12D 17L from 49 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 1.08 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 9W 8D 8L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.80 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 76%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 11D 24L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.32 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
De Graafschap go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
4
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, De Graafschap have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Utrecht at 72%, De Graafschap at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Jong Utrecht and 72% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Jong Utrecht's games and 76% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 72% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.