Jong PSV U21 1-3 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 38%, yet in-form Excelsior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Excelsior travel to PSV Campus De Herdgang to take on Jong PSV U21. The game is scheduled for Monday 21 October 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's home record at PSV Campus De Herdgang: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Excelsior have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Excelsior are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 1 for Excelsior and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 3–0 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 85% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 65% and Excelsior 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 75% | Excelsior 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.83 xG and Excelsior 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.005 / defence 1.199 | Excelsior attack 1.010 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.492. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Jong PSV U21 games / 10 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 37%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Excelsior 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Excelsior (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 70% | Excelsior 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 72% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.83 / Excelsior 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.005 / def 1.199 | Excelsior attack 1.010 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Excelsior xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 21 October 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 3 Excelsior.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 38% chance of winning, Excelsior a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior?
Record (2 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Excelsior (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.00) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
38%
2.65
25%
3.95
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.64
1.81
Excelsior xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.56
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
6%
16.12
6%
16.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.81 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 14W 9D 25L from 48 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 20L across 48 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.06 PPG, Excelsior on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 6W 6D 11L from 23 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 3W 6D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Excelsior's season.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.90 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Excelsior in 69%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 14W 9D 25L in their last 48 games (1.06 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 15W 13D 20L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Excelsior away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.04 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Excelsior have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2025, when Excelsior won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, Excelsior have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Excelsior 5-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 70%, Excelsior at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Jong PSV U21 and 91% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Jong PSV U21's games and 70% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 91% of Excelsior's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Jong PSV U21 1-3 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.83 xG and Excelsior 1.81 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Excelsior outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Excelsior attack 1.01 / defence 1.23, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 37%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Excelsior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 75%, Excelsior 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.06 PPG, Excelsior 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.