Jong PSV U21 2-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Emmen at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 4 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's home record at PSV Campus De Herdgang: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Emmen are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong PSV U21 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jong PSV U21, 3 for Emmen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Emmen in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 66% versus Emmen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 76% | Emmen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.17 xG and Emmen 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.983 / defence 1.276 | Emmen attack 1.119 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.487. Data: 50 Jong PSV U21 games / 50 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 19% | Draw 22% | Emmen 58%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Emmen 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 80% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 4 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 19% | Draw 22% | Emmen 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.17 / Emmen 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.983 / def 1.276 | Emmen attack 1.119 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Emmen (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Emmen xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 4 November 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Jong PSV U21 2 - 3 Emmen.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 19% chance of winning, Emmen a 58% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Emmen?
Record (4 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 0 | Emmen 3W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Emmen in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Emmen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.98) and Emmen's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
19%
5.19
22%
4.46
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.29
2.12
Emmen xG
5.19
19%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
12%
8.37
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
2%
43.45
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 2.12 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 15W 9D 26L from 50 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 19L across 50 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong PSV U21 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 6W 6D 12L from 24 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 11W 4D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.46 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 15W 9D 26L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while Emmen have gone 22W 9D 19L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.00 PPG; Emmen away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and Emmen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong PSV U21 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2024, when Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Emmen have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Emmen 2-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 71%, Emmen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Jong PSV U21 and 67% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Jong PSV U21's games and 58% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 67% of Emmen's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Emmen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Jong PSV U21 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong PSV U21 2-3 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.17 xG and Emmen 2.12 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen outscored their 2.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.98 / defence 1.28 against Emmen attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 19% | Draw 22% | Emmen 58%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 76%, Emmen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.