Jong PSV U21 3-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Emmen at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's home record at PSV Campus De Herdgang: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Emmen are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong PSV U21 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Emmen, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Jong PSV U21.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Emmen winning.
It is worth noting that Emmen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Emmen in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 67% and Emmen 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 70% | Emmen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.60 xG and Emmen 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.917 / defence 1.338 | Emmen attack 0.840 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.300. Data: 62 Jong PSV U21 games / 23 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 26% | Emmen 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Emmen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Emmen (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 80% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 9 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 26% | Emmen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.60 / Emmen 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.917 / def 1.338 | Emmen attack 0.840 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Emmen xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 February 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 40% chance of winning, Emmen a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Emmen?
Record (3 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 3W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Emmen in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Emmen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.92) and Emmen's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.78
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.06
1.46
Emmen xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.46 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 17W 14D 30L from 61 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 28L across 61 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.07 PPG, Emmen on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 10W 7D 14L from 31 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 8W 5D 18L across 31 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.16 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 14D 30L in their last 61 games (1.07 PPG), while Emmen have gone 17W 16D 28L in their last 61 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Emmen away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.19 PPG; Emmen away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and Emmen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong PSV U21 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2024, when Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Emmen have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Emmen 2-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 68%, Emmen at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Jong PSV U21 and 68% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jong PSV U21's games and 64% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 68% of Emmen's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Emmen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong PSV U21 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Emmen 3-0 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.60 xG and Emmen 1.46 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.92 / defence 1.34 against Emmen attack 0.84 / defence 1.09, drawn from 62/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 26% | Emmen 34%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 70%, Emmen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.07 PPG, Emmen 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.